Have OIL prices topped?
Posted by MC on Jun 23, 2008
I posted this chart on the TradersBASE forums back on the 15th of June, but seems I missed posting it here. 
We are still in that box so nothing has changed YET.
I found then, and still find that volume on the high fishy. And there’s now lots of news about speculation and possible legislation surrounding the insanity we call OIL. I think that may have been a case of insiders getting tipped off and selling into the strength, that sure is what it looks like based on my TA knowledge anyhow. Swamping volume at highs is usually distribution, and now leading up to bad news for oil IMO we could get a collapse and reversal shortly. That was my call then, and it’s still my feeling now. If oil plays can breakout of those box like ranges with volume then my tune would have to change, but I’m feeling pretty good about the short side here. There has been posturing inside the chop up here, but I feel that 33 mil tells the story.
Good luck, don’t pick a top, let the top come to you. 
MC
My observation on Friday’s volume in key markets
Posted by MC on Jun 7, 2008
I’m of course not going to try and call a top on USO/oil here, but I do see some heavy heavy volume at monstrous highs. If we chop or pullback and then test highs on light volume…they sold off here and there’s probably a reversal coming. If not I’m riding a bike to work, look out at the pumps.
Friday was a MF to try and read though. Based on the volume of the indices, and the volume on oil plays, one of 2 scenarios were likely to have occurred.
1) Big money moved out of the indices and into oil. (unlikely at this level of pricing on the two)
2) They moved out of oil and into the beaten up indices. (IMO more likely again given the price levels of the two)
I’m not saying fight the trend or making any silly predictions, just stating my observations. I mean lets face it, typically pros buy low and sell high 8/10 times. There is that 2/10 chance that this is the pros buying high to sell higher though.
The search for an oil top
Posted by Cire2222 on May 10, 2008
We were able to catch a top in gold, a top in the Euro and the last attempt for a top in oil failed ( I thought they would move together) So now here I am looking for a top in oil again. I would wait for confirmation before making a move but here is a thought on Oil. The EUR/USD hit a consolidation phase, broke out and ran hard to the 261.8 Fib extension with once sharp quick pullback reaction on the way up then found a top. When I Pulled up the USO (oil tracking ETF) I see a similar situation. See the charts below
Tues Review
Posted by Cire2222 on Apr 15, 2008
Today oil popped up to new highs and we entered our short position in USO. I will watch carefully the next few days, I am expecting oil to get no higher than 115 during this trade and i expect a downward move to begin by thursday, If this criteria is not met I will exit the trade. INTC released earnings after the bell sending index futures up much higher tonight. Expect tomorrow to bring a much more volitile trading day. I have no bias in this market right now. I still like gold as a short, It is stuck range bound waiting for the follar to pick a breakout direction.
