My long term view of the SPY…
Posted by MC on Oct 9, 2008
Clean TA…simple is best IMO. Chart speaks for itself as far as I’m concerned.
Other than tonights Silver post…here’s my bias on the DOW!
Posted by MC on Oct 5, 2008
This is uncharted territory/circumstance. Nobody has a crystal ball so all I can do is give my 2 cents. 
Now that said I can begin to make a bull case but I’ll let the chart speak for itself because there more bear$hit on the chart than bull$hit.
Of course the last candle is 1 week in and hasn’t printed so we can sort of rule that out, although it HAS made a new low so don’t totally discard it. Macd histo has NO divergence in this monthly timeframe. In fact it’s just straight down with no flinching. Also there is room to move down to fully test support. I’d put absolute make or break support in the mid-high 9700’s myself. That’s all the bear case, added to the current trend you have a strong case for continuation down.
As for the bullish side it’s mainly the fact that there was buying pressure on both the last tests of the channel lows. BUT buying pressure does not equal a reversal 9/10 times. If we slide to lows at/or above that support on dried up volume with histo divergence that would show me the selling pressure has dried up. The fact that there was heavy buying pressure doesn’t discount the fact that for every buyer there was a seller. The selling pressure though somewhat offset was undeniable and panic like that won’t likely turn on a dime.
Big volume is a warning sign of a possible flush though most often there is more price action left where the market probes further for buying/selling pressure (unfinished business). I have yet to see a convincing case of bottoming action. I’m pretty fond of this setup…If we were in a bull trend and I saw the reverse action I just described I’d say look out below…in fact this was how I picked the 14k top on the Dow a year ago. 
People are on edge…based on my Volume Based Price chart put yourself in the auction along with the majority of the volume in this range. What would you feel if you just had 4 years of profits turn even or slightly red?
Still a bear bias for me, won’t effect my daytrades though thank god. 
Silver has a good chance of a double bottom backed by paper markets falling.
Posted by MC on Sep 5, 2008
While the paper markets are in breakdown mode…commod’s should bounce.
Silver looks prime for a bounce IMO. Tight stop and quite a bit of potential upside off this divergent test of the last lows, this is an excellent trade opportunity as I see it. 
Remember you’re counter trend if you’re long, the 50ma has crossed below the 200ma already. Pay extra attention to the red dots as they are double backed resistance (by ma and structure). The best trades (with the trend) would be to look for rejection at those levels and get short. Those could also be used for long targets which is classic textbook support and resistance.
I LOVE this chart example for TA…it just is clean and clear. I see too many people out there trying so hard to make sense of a shitty chart when there are TONS of other plays. If the chart doesn’t hit you quickly don’t bother trying TA. If you cant see a clear line in the sand where bulls and bears will interact don’t play it cause it will be hard to gauge risk/reward ratios. Trending plays are MUCH easier to work TA with as the side winning is already evident and of high probability to continue. Choppy sideways action is often like betting on red at the roulette table IMO…unless you wait for the breakout that is. The consolidation plays do tend to be more violent and can provide quicker profit if you are patient and quick enough to enter on the break.
Good luck. 
FRPT could be ready to reverse…Keep an eye out!
Posted by MC on Apr 11, 2008
Well this puppy made many people serious cash on the first rise to the heavens.
Looks like round 2 could be coming our way?
We can see the Head n’ Shoulders measured move has played out to perfection and now that level must be broken to become bullish. The depth of the measure and the slight downward channels top coincide and once broken should prove to be a reversal.
Look at that stopping volume stepping in as support on the depth of the measured move as well. Now we have clear big money having stepped in and a macd crossover coming off divergence on the lower lows.
I would either buy the bottom of that channel if it dips back there or place a stop order above the channel and resistance level to catch breakout momentum. As with many breakouts that gets you in at the base price of the breakout and you have wiggle room for your stop since often breakouts come back to test the resistance turned support.
Good trading,
MC
From my post on TB…Visit us at TradersBASE!
Monthly and Weekly look at the DIA which tracks the DOW
Posted by MC on Apr 6, 2008
Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let’s see how much doom n’ gloom is left and if I’m really crazy. 
Here’s the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn’t crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a “bear trend” but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that’s held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don’t think that a trendline can’t be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
I give you MC’s Musings!
Posted by MC on Apr 3, 2008
Here is my first post in a new category called MC’s Musings.
Here I will relay all my thoughts on the current state of the market which I usually do with a chart.
I’ve yet to dial in the psych part of MY game but I feel my TA and charting is on par with some high level traders.
I strive to continue to help people profit from the markets which I enjoy doing.
Beware as I sometimes rant as well.
