Are we there yet…..?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 21, 2008
Now that we have kicked off the week I wanted to do a follow up on last weeks weekly chart that was posted here. We came down and tagged one of our weekly downtrend lines. Now the question was, and still is, was that a solid support level or is the true downtrend line yet to be tested? We have bounced before in this bear market and came right down to new lows, will it happen again? We kicked off this week with a slow light volume down day, however after hours reports from Apple and American express send the futures falling down in the after hours trading. As i type this the dow futures are down 100+ points. Of course this doesn’t mean we open that way but it does usually mean we will see more volume and more action in tomorrows trading. One thing I would recommend keeping an eye on is the dollar. If the dollar can give some significant strength in the next couple days I would expect some short covering to send it in a decent size rally. This will be bullish for the stock market. As far as earnings go, the financials have not given too much dissapointment letting me know that alot of the financial fears are baked in to this market. I think the big question many want to know is, will another large financial institution take a dump? Lehman, Wamu and Wachovia are a couple names that come to mind. Fears like that are what can keep investors on the sidelines waiting, these are the people that will come jumping into the market once they begin to feel they may have missed the bottom. Thats what can keep a short cover rally on the move.
The bigger picture
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 14, 2008
I wanted to look at the bigger picutre as we kick off the week. Below is a 3 year weeks chart of the s&p 500. As you can see we are just now testing the bottom of a downward channel. Can this area hold and can we get a bounce in the market here is the question? Obviously it’s going to take some signaificant news to get a really bull move here. If we break this channel there is another that has formed and it would not suprise me if we go test the bottom of that before we get any bounce. Good luck in this wild market!
A look at the monthly
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 30, 2008
Today we came to the end of an ugly month and ugly first half of 2008 so I wanted to take a step back and look at the picture of a long term monthly chart. As we sit now things do not look good. We finally got a cross of the 8 and 21 EMA and a close below the 50EMA. In the past when this situation occured it was rare to see the market rally from this point on without at least one more significant drop. I would continue to be cautious in this market. I will continue to day trade and keep the swing trade money in other markets or on the sidelines until I can get a better idea of what this market is going to do.
What happened today?
Posted by Cire2222 on May 7, 2008
A fairly large sell off today in the stock market. The selling came in hard mid-day. On the technical side not much damage has been done to the bulls yet but we are coming down into a key support zone, I see at least another 100 down points and 10 s&p points lower before we hit a support area. If that breaks then we could give up alot of this recent rally very fast so be cautious.
