Other than tonights Silver post…here’s my bias on the DOW!
Posted by MC on Oct 5, 2008
This is uncharted territory/circumstance. Nobody has a crystal ball so all I can do is give my 2 cents. 
Now that said I can begin to make a bull case but I’ll let the chart speak for itself because there more bear$hit on the chart than bull$hit.
Of course the last candle is 1 week in and hasn’t printed so we can sort of rule that out, although it HAS made a new low so don’t totally discard it. Macd histo has NO divergence in this monthly timeframe. In fact it’s just straight down with no flinching. Also there is room to move down to fully test support. I’d put absolute make or break support in the mid-high 9700’s myself. That’s all the bear case, added to the current trend you have a strong case for continuation down.
As for the bullish side it’s mainly the fact that there was buying pressure on both the last tests of the channel lows. BUT buying pressure does not equal a reversal 9/10 times. If we slide to lows at/or above that support on dried up volume with histo divergence that would show me the selling pressure has dried up. The fact that there was heavy buying pressure doesn’t discount the fact that for every buyer there was a seller. The selling pressure though somewhat offset was undeniable and panic like that won’t likely turn on a dime.
Big volume is a warning sign of a possible flush though most often there is more price action left where the market probes further for buying/selling pressure (unfinished business). I have yet to see a convincing case of bottoming action. I’m pretty fond of this setup…If we were in a bull trend and I saw the reverse action I just described I’d say look out below…in fact this was how I picked the 14k top on the Dow a year ago. 
People are on edge…based on my Volume Based Price chart put yourself in the auction along with the majority of the volume in this range. What would you feel if you just had 4 years of profits turn even or slightly red?
Still a bear bias for me, won’t effect my daytrades though thank god. 
My observation on Friday’s volume in key markets
Posted by MC on Jun 7, 2008
I’m of course not going to try and call a top on USO/oil here, but I do see some heavy heavy volume at monstrous highs. If we chop or pullback and then test highs on light volume…they sold off here and there’s probably a reversal coming. If not I’m riding a bike to work, look out at the pumps. 
Friday was a MF to try and read though. Based on the volume of the indices, and the volume on oil plays, one of 2 scenarios were likely to have occurred.
1) Big money moved out of the indices and into oil. (unlikely at this level of pricing on the two)
2) They moved out of oil and into the beaten up indices. (IMO more likely again given the price levels of the two)
I’m not saying fight the trend or making any silly predictions, just stating my observations. I mean lets face it, typically pros buy low and sell high 8/10 times. There is that 2/10 chance that this is the pros buying high to sell higher though. 
FRPT could be ready to reverse…Keep an eye out!
Posted by MC on Apr 11, 2008
Well this puppy made many people serious cash on the first rise to the heavens.
Looks like round 2 could be coming our way?
We can see the Head n’ Shoulders measured move has played out to perfection and now that level must be broken to become bullish. The depth of the measure and the slight downward channels top coincide and once broken should prove to be a reversal.
Look at that stopping volume stepping in as support on the depth of the measured move as well. Now we have clear big money having stepped in and a macd crossover coming off divergence on the lower lows.
I would either buy the bottom of that channel if it dips back there or place a stop order above the channel and resistance level to catch breakout momentum. As with many breakouts that gets you in at the base price of the breakout and you have wiggle room for your stop since often breakouts come back to test the resistance turned support.
Good trading,
MC
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