Updated thoughts on the scope of this crisis…
Posted by MC on Oct 10, 2008
This is all crashing due to institutional liquidation so they can raise cash as Timmy and I talked about last night. Cash to cover their a$$es, not to buy back in…like he said to me.
It’s going to end up more about who is NO LONGER in the market more than the shorts or what retail thinks. Suck enough liquidity out of the market and this is what you get…a hard and paper asset drain. Now imagine what will happen if/when the early and late majority of baby boomers pull their funds for retirement. 
Now the unknown with the graphic above is how this removal of money supply will effect the paradigm. The above represents a more less fixed axis, but when something like fictional money supply is changing this dramatically the above is somewhat flawed. 2 things are moving at once essentially, the bellcurve is no longer on a fixed axis. What WAS is NO LONGER, as this is a fundamental shift. This drain is going to remove much of the “money supply” in this country and in turn globally. There will be more damage to come from companies closing or tightening up, job loss etc… I’m praying for a bounce so I can short and ride the wave. This has been a life lesson and this indeed will be in history books in the future. This is a BIG deal!
IMO they simply cannot hyper inflate to offset the amounts damage we have seen and have yet to see. I’d like them to slow down and trickle help in rather than fuel panic and use all their lifelines at once. This should be a slow recovery…VERY slow.
Stay safe and with the trend IMO. 
A few thoughts on the lifetime $DJI
Posted by MC on Jun 11, 2008
Kind of an interesting view. On a lifetime yearly chart the last monster bull run didn’t even flinch, nor did it retrace even to 50% on the Y2K “crash”. I guess the question is how do fundamentals make this exponential market rise look? IS the market overbought up here, or is there still room for growth after such a big long run? We did break the range and have tested the prior swing level, though we aren’t even half way through the year so the test means little till it’s closed.
Another thought that made me LOL was the consolidation from 1965 through about 1983. All this talk of the market returns x% per year. And the 401k hype that you put in x% of your check and you’ll retire a millionaire. Who the hell are they fooling…well how about most of working class America. 
I mean of course it all depends on where you began investing, and where you cash out, and everything in between. But the pipe dream of the market always giving gains is anything but a guarantee, there’s a 20 year span that might not have done much for your nest egg. Ask those that tried to retire after the Y2K started it’s down move. How many put off retirement cause they were down so far that the simply couldn’t afford to retire at that point.
How many ran and sold in ‘87? That looks like not even a blip on this view of the market. The market is bigger than most of us think about, myself included. All it takes is a gander at something like this chart to really make you think about your daytrades or even swing trades. We get excited on some of these 50 point gaps, but in the bigger picture its a tick. You can do this on ANY timeframe, and this is why it’s important to roll back and look at the bigger picture. All good traders seem to use multiple time frames, and this is partially why. This is the equivalent of living on the ground all your life, and you finally take a plane ride and see things from 10,000 feet. You realize how small a speck you and your house is, and how little your life means in the grand scheme.
Enough of my ramblings, just wanted to provoke some thoughts and discussions. 
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