My view of the YM’s bigger picture
Posted by MC on Apr 23, 2008
Here’s my view, we closed above that down channel pretty convincingly. As expected it’s stalling at overhead resistance on low volume, it’s time to base or pullback to test support most likely.
Now ideally we should get a test of the new support on the top down trend line.
Even better would be if it kind of hangs here for a few days and lets that channel line meet with the structure support below. There would be the king of entries if you want odds in your favor, double support for a long. 
Note the red arrow, that’s your signal if your less aggressive and maybe the smartest entry of all. The channels/trendlines break and fake out often but a legit breakout of range followed by a test of that same level is a prime entry. Let’s see if we can get that smarter entry on a long here. You could play it short in anticipation of that test though it could rally with no warning and now I would look for long setups.
VIX > TRIN
Posted by MC on Apr 18, 2008
Yesterday (17th) I pegged a prime entry on the YM’s opening pullback to 12,570 for a long in the fourms chat. Today I nailed the opening trade again…long on a pullback to 12,780-12,790 was the call at 9:34am.
Then using the chart below I picked the prime short entry which worked quite well. The main reason for this post isn’t to brag, but more about why I prefer VIX 1000% over TRIN myself, it shows way more detail in my usage.
Compared to TRIN in the same point.
So yes TRIN moved up but it still was range bound, where the VIX showed a formation which had broken out and gave a great signal.
Good trading and I’ll see you in the chat next week.
MC
What Technical Analysis will NOT do for you
Posted by MC on Apr 17, 2008
Technical Analysis or TA for short is a tool used by most traders to some extent. It’s the artistic science of using charts, volume and/or indicators to try and pick trades that will be high probability winners.
Newer traders (myself included) often waste a ton of time early on, learning 20 indicators thinking they’ll gain the answer to profit. I think it’s important to address what TA will NOT do for you. TA is NOT the holy grail and never will be. There will never be an indicator that will eliminate the mental edge required to profit from trading. This is why I think it’s best to read some market psychology books before anything else to get the proper core mindset. The true holy grail is your mind, and the better your psychological conditioning the better you are at controlling money management/position sizing. Risk management and controlling emotion are also traits that proper TA training can help foster and develop in a trader.
Lets dig in a bit further…
TA helps us formulate an educated guess about what’s most likely to happen next based on how the chart depicts supply and demand. Also formations and indicator levels that the majority of people use can help. There is a ton of interpretation which should improve as we become more educated through screen time and experience. The better your mentor and the more time you invest in screen time the faster your learning curve. For many, TA is the easy part of the puzzle and the mental side is what takes more effort and time to overcome. This is because our very upbringing and how society revolves is the opposite of how you profit in the market.
Why do I use the term “guess”? Well what a chart cannot tell us is who’s on the sidelines waiting for a certain trigger to jump into the market and buy or sell short. There are millions if not billions of minds at work in the market determining what fair value means to them. The market is an auction and someone’s thought about perceived value changes on every tick. This makes the market ever changing and what HAS worked is not guaranteed to work going forward. Chop days show a balanced market, other than that the market is making waves to try and find that balance between buyers and sellers.
So in closing, a good rule of thumb in the market is look at why you should NOT take the trade and TA can help out.
Focus on mastering a few select indicators and use them consistently since it’s consistency that will lead you to profit in the markets.
Good trading, hope this helps. Stop in the forums and check all our great content that keeps growing.
www.tradersbase.com/forum
FRPT could be ready to reverse…Keep an eye out!
Posted by MC on Apr 11, 2008
Well this puppy made many people serious cash on the first rise to the heavens.
Looks like round 2 could be coming our way?
We can see the Head n’ Shoulders measured move has played out to perfection and now that level must be broken to become bullish. The depth of the measure and the slight downward channels top coincide and once broken should prove to be a reversal.
Look at that stopping volume stepping in as support on the depth of the measured move as well. Now we have clear big money having stepped in and a macd crossover coming off divergence on the lower lows.
I would either buy the bottom of that channel if it dips back there or place a stop order above the channel and resistance level to catch breakout momentum. As with many breakouts that gets you in at the base price of the breakout and you have wiggle room for your stop since often breakouts come back to test the resistance turned support.
Good trading,
MC
From my post on TB…Visit us at TradersBASE!
I give you MC’s Musings!
Posted by MC on Apr 3, 2008
Here is my first post in a new category called MC’s Musings.
Here I will relay all my thoughts on the current state of the market which I usually do with a chart.
I’ve yet to dial in the psych part of MY game but I feel my TA and charting is on par with some high level traders.
I strive to continue to help people profit from the markets which I enjoy doing.
Beware as I sometimes rant as well. 
