It continues
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 30, 2008
Another day with strength in the stock market and strength in the dollar. The big bullish signal in the market today was the ability for the market to close at the highs as Oil moved up strong. As you know I have been bullish and this type of trading keeps me bullish. The dollar is still in the same story so I don’t have much to say my same bias continues in both markets.
Oil takes a smack in the face
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 15, 2008
Today oil took it’s biggest one day fall in 17 years so what does this mean? Sure it was a significant move but on a techincal view the move did no damage, the trend is still holding. Let’s hope some real damage is done in the next few days/weeks.
Have OIL prices topped?
Posted by MC on Jun 23, 2008
I posted this chart on the TradersBASE forums back on the 15th of June, but seems I missed posting it here. 
We are still in that box so nothing has changed YET.
I found then, and still find that volume on the high fishy. And there’s now lots of news about speculation and possible legislation surrounding the insanity we call OIL. I think that may have been a case of insiders getting tipped off and selling into the strength, that sure is what it looks like based on my TA knowledge anyhow. Swamping volume at highs is usually distribution, and now leading up to bad news for oil IMO we could get a collapse and reversal shortly. That was my call then, and it’s still my feeling now. If oil plays can breakout of those box like ranges with volume then my tune would have to change, but I’m feeling pretty good about the short side here. There has been posturing inside the chop up here, but I feel that 33 mil tells the story.
Good luck, don’t pick a top, let the top come to you. 
MC
Oil crushes all in it’s path
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 8, 2008
Well the dollars solid attempt at a decent rally was put to a screeching halt as Oil exploded to it’s highs. The USD/JPY and EUR/USD trades were good while they lasted but I was stopped out on what was left of my positions. The stock market was destroyed on friday, below you can see a couple follow up charts to a prior post of mine in regard to the SPY breaking down and the VIX breaking higher days before this sell off, this is why I have had a bearish stance. After a large move like friday I do not like to take any new swing positions right away. If your currently short just manage your position and if your on the sidelines stay there, it’s in your best interest. I will continue to have a bearish outlook on this market until the technicals tell me otherwise.
My observation on Friday’s volume in key markets
Posted by MC on Jun 7, 2008
I’m of course not going to try and call a top on USO/oil here, but I do see some heavy heavy volume at monstrous highs. If we chop or pullback and then test highs on light volume…they sold off here and there’s probably a reversal coming. If not I’m riding a bike to work, look out at the pumps.
Friday was a MF to try and read though. Based on the volume of the indices, and the volume on oil plays, one of 2 scenarios were likely to have occurred.
1) Big money moved out of the indices and into oil. (unlikely at this level of pricing on the two)
2) They moved out of oil and into the beaten up indices. (IMO more likely again given the price levels of the two)
I’m not saying fight the trend or making any silly predictions, just stating my observations. I mean lets face it, typically pros buy low and sell high 8/10 times. There is that 2/10 chance that this is the pros buying high to sell higher though.
Dollar strong
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 3, 2008
Just last night I posted about the Dollar being a key market right now and boy did it make headlines today. Fed Chief Ben had some hawkish words on inflation and the market now thinks the rate cuts are over, the fed fund futures are even pricing in a chance of a rate hike. The EUR/USD was the best spot to be as a dollar bull just like I mentioned last night. I also like the USD/JPY pair but I do not like its intra-day correlation to the stock market with this recent weakness. The USD/JPY didn’t give me the close I wanted but I continue to think it will move higher. The dollar and oil should continue to be key markets for now.
5/12/08 Review and trade set-up video
Posted by Cire2222 on May 12, 2008
This is the first attempt at hosting a video direct to our server and not from youtube, so let me know if you guys have problems. You will need to be able to view flash media.
http://tradersbase.com/tbvideos/cire2222/512blog.swf
The Sea Change has begun
Posted by Cire2222 on Apr 18, 2008
My recent post on the ’sea change’ seems to have started today. Just as expected Oil hit 115 and has begun to fall, the dollar is getting a boost accross the board and gold is selling off hard this morning. This is just what I was looking for. If you are not involved in these trades already then I think it is a fairly safe trade to get short these markets (long dollar) and put stops at recent swing highs in an attempt to catch a big correction move. Im not getting too excited yet but this could be it guys, this could be what I have been calling for. Keep your eyes peeled!
Oil
Posted by Cire2222 on Apr 15, 2008
This morning Oil got a little surge up so I took this chance to enter my short position in Oil. If we get no signs today or tomorrow of a reversal on oil I will look to exit quickly and cut my losses short. This is a low risk entry at an attempt for a large move down.
