Can we have a “Cash 4 Clunkers” program for our economy…
Posted by MC on Aug 30, 2009
Can we have a “Cash 4 Clunkers” program for our economy…since they are trashing our future?? I mean clearly our economy is a clunker at this stage…fundamentally speaking. HRMMM.
“Cash 4 Clunkers” has done what the government intended it to do…stimulate and prop the markets/hurting industries/economy up. Especially the auto makers and lenders they now have ownership stakes in. Gotta love that they can overstep their bounds and pick who is “too big to fail”. So much for “free markets”. Long term is all this smart…not at all. As loans continue to be written, and for higher amounts, the bubblish need for higher wages grows. They are advancing the debt slavery exponentially. They are further removing peoples ability to save or think ahead. 
The more loans that are written, the more the money supply expands. The more the money supply expands the less our USD stretches. So yay for reduced spending power. A dollar is not a dollar, even though it looks the same in your wallet. Don’t believe me, think of just maybe 5 years ago. $1 would buy you 1 gallon of gas, where now you need 3-4 of those same bills to get the same 1 gallon. It’s just not a realistic or sustianable scenario! If you don’t let an economy (especially one with garbage fiat currency) both expand AND contract to the full extent you limit the lifespan of the currency. So they force things to expand and expand and expand, while only letting minor (in relation to expansion) contraction occur. Things were a lot more sustainable until 1995 and the tech bubble…see the below chart.
What ATR or Average True Range shows (more less) is the number of points traveled for the noted period. This is a yearly chart so every bar represents 1 year of price movement. So this shows through an equasion…basically every year the price flucuated xxx number of points. The calcs are not important, the important part is prior to 1995 things were crusing along at a pretty reasonable and non exponential rate. Then it got a wee bit insane [/sarcasm] and has never looked back.
Some may argue or debate about this not being a “log scale” chart. I say why when you’re trying to compare 1 point to 1 point or value to value why do you need to have exponential skewing??? Is a point not a point? Do we need to skew the picture to make things look less insane? Draw fibs on a non log, or look at ATR on a non log chart. They give the same numbers/readings whether log or arithmetic. Why? Because a point is a frickin point! Now I will say…for trendlines log scale is a must. But for vertical to vertical comparison log is not a valid view IMO.
Some interesting numbers are as follows…
Great Depression: High of 386 points before putting in a low of 40. YES…a loss of almost 90%!
2009 “recession/depression”: High of 14,198 points before putting in a current low of 6,470. A 54% loss. So we gave back a whopping 7,728 points and still had 46% left in the tank. If we gave back a matching 90% to that of the Great Depression we’d still have a DOW of about 1,420. Nearly 4x the peak of the Roaring 20’s. The irony is back then our country was a PRODUCING nation that saved. Now we are a CONSUMER nation with piss poor GDP and deep red negative debt to savings ratios. Giving 90% back would leave us with a bargain technically…fundamentally speaking. LOL
Compare the Y2K bear to the 2009 bear:
Y2k high of 11,750 and low of 7,198 (39% loss). This bear took nearly 3 years to bottom, and had several semi-controlled waves/corrections. Again, only a 39% loss though it must have been painful as it just ground lower, then bounced, then lower…seemingly forever.
Again this current bear we lost 54% assuming we have bottomed…in about 1.5 years! So substantially more loss in half the time. (Insert Tom Petty’s “Free Fallin” song here).
Just seems at some point…somethings gotta give on a bigger scale…no?
INFLATION >>>> KABOOOM
Posted by MC on Oct 9, 2008
http://www.tradersbase.com/forum/general-discussion-misc/812-more-vids-fractional-lending.html
Set aside the 50-60 minutes and watch these videos!!! Pass these on so more people can wake up to the reality of this economy we live in, or should I say that we are trapped by? The economy is NOT sustainable in the US nor globally and there will be a major earth shattering collapse at some point. This may or may not be the time but it’s going to be in my lifetime I bet (hope I’m wrong about the timing)! This could very well be it as we ARE in a global meltdown, this is not just a US issue currently.
The term inflation is tossed around too much…inflation does NOT do this issue justice. So let’s say 3% is our annual inflation right? You picture a diagonal line drifting up a bit each year right? Well it’s 3% of an exponential, ever increasing bubble, it’s not an arbitrary 3%. What does that mean in numbers…my simple mind can’t count that high and I think if you had the whole US population use all their fingers and toes to count it out we still would come up short. Yeah…it’s that big!
This is not Debbie Downer calling…its a REALITY check! Some may want to crawl back in their bubble of “homeland” security and pretend the issue isn’t real or that I’m a wacko. That’s fine and dandy by me…just watch the videos so you can recognize what went wrong when the $hit really hits the fan…assuming this isn’t the fan hitter right now.
We envy the “wealthy” so much that’s all people talk about and emulate. Those people are paper wealthy, look how fragile their precious “wealth” is. We just saw many, MANY “TRILLIONS” wiped off the face of the planet in less than a year. Hell in the past week even. That’s a drop in the hat compared to what could happen when this thing finally implodes. It’s simply not real money..that’s why I’ve called the US the most impressive empire built on lies before.
They could have bought us some more time by letting things correct, slowing down and not doing a “bailout” so quickly. But greed has a choke hold on people and no doubt they fear that if people panic too much they will cause the implosion well before the wealthy can make even more money off the middle class. This is why I don’t think this will be the big one myself. The fed is doing anything they can to prop the banks up and allow the game to continue. They are going to inflate the USD to worthless and then we will have to see a shift to a new currency. Ask yourself just one question…does your dollar go as far as it did even a year ago? Picture 5 years ago if you can remember that far back…10 years. Get it, we are in an ever INFLATING environment and there are 2 scenarios. They can allow it to go through a DEflationary period which will delay the inevitable but give us more time or they can hyper inflate which will speed up the coming demise that much quicker. Bailout says it all…they are looking to hyper inflate the debt out of existence. I won’t go beyond that because most will probably think I’m nuts. There are many more conspiracy theories about what that next currency will be…I’ll be looking at ammo as currency I think.
Money supply - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Here is a great link for economists terms like what is the “money supply” and some other good information. I love wikipedia!
Economy of the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wiki for the US economic data.
Take NOTHING for granted or as a “guarantee”. Enron had pensions right…how did that end up working for those poor souls? Social Security is a government “promise” not a contractual obligation. Keep that under your hat and don’t be surprised if they break yet another promise. Roth IRA’s are tax free gains right…well yes as long as the “promise” holds up, but it’s not a contractual obligation technically. That could very well change and you could see people’s nest eggs further erode or implode.
Back in 2005 for every $1 we added to our GDP we added $4 of indebtedness. To pay off our national debt we need each family to cough up about $150,000 and that’s before the effects of the bailout hit. We all have $150k saved up right? NO? You mean to tell me the average person in the US lives paycheck to paycheck with almost no, or NO savings??? But this is a very wealthy empire we live in…how can that be? Because Middle Class supports both the wealthy and the poor. Incredibly lopsided wealth distribution is another major issue but that’s a whole other rant honestly.
Just open your mind and for a moment be free from the news and lines of crap we’re fed every minute of every day of every week of …….
If you wish to return under that rock afterwards and pretend everything will fix itself and there is no underlying issue that’s your prerogative. That’s how America go this far out of wack in the first place though…complacency and turning a deaf ear.
There’s no harm in being prepared for the worst, but there is EVERYTHING to be gained.
Be open minded and wise,
MC
