My long term view of the SPY…
Posted by MC on Oct 9, 2008
Clean TA…simple is best IMO. Chart speaks for itself as far as I’m concerned.
VIX > TRIN
Posted by MC on Apr 18, 2008
Yesterday (17th) I pegged a prime entry on the YM’s opening pullback to 12,570 for a long in the fourms chat. Today I nailed the opening trade again…long on a pullback to 12,780-12,790 was the call at 9:34am.
Then using the chart below I picked the prime short entry which worked quite well. The main reason for this post isn’t to brag, but more about why I prefer VIX 1000% over TRIN myself, it shows way more detail in my usage.
Compared to TRIN in the same point.
So yes TRIN moved up but it still was range bound, where the VIX showed a formation which had broken out and gave a great signal.
Good trading and I’ll see you in the chat next week. 
MC
What a week for the markets!
Posted by MC on Apr 18, 2008
With premarket we are a hair over the rangebound resistance.
Not going to be easy to hold that, not to mention we have that 2nd area of structure resistance with the 50ma backing it so if we break it shouldn’t go far at right away.
Given this weekly chart, barring a disaster we will close above the downtrend. A pullback test of that new support and/or consolidation under the 50ma will probably be needed if this is the real deal. Disregard the volume, it’s not accurate since this is a TOS continuous chart and they have bugs to work out.
That’s my take anyhow
MC’s Friday night DOW review
Posted by MC on Apr 12, 2008
Hrmmm…thoughts? I don’t like that volume at resistance at all. Tell us what you think in the forums.
I’d much rather have seen low volume on a failure to breakout, seems like possible distribution to me.
I might say that was decent volume, so all effort with no result.
Now the TRIN did close well above 2.0 so the odds of an up day Monday is very high. If we fail to break up we could be in for some hurt and blood.
This chart shows some volume stepping in at a trendline based on the weekly as well as a complete gap fill from back on 3/31. We now have the open gap above formed from todays opening gap down.
I have a bullish bias for the DOW on Monday. It should be interesting, then again what day in the market isn’t interesting? 
FRPT could be ready to reverse…Keep an eye out!
Posted by MC on Apr 11, 2008
Well this puppy made many people serious cash on the first rise to the heavens.
Looks like round 2 could be coming our way?
We can see the Head n’ Shoulders measured move has played out to perfection and now that level must be broken to become bullish. The depth of the measure and the slight downward channels top coincide and once broken should prove to be a reversal.
Look at that stopping volume stepping in as support on the depth of the measured move as well. Now we have clear big money having stepped in and a macd crossover coming off divergence on the lower lows.
I would either buy the bottom of that channel if it dips back there or place a stop order above the channel and resistance level to catch breakout momentum. As with many breakouts that gets you in at the base price of the breakout and you have wiggle room for your stop since often breakouts come back to test the resistance turned support.
Good trading,
MC
From my post on TB…Visit us at TradersBASE!
Monthly and Weekly look at the DIA which tracks the DOW
Posted by MC on Apr 6, 2008
Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let’s see how much doom n’ gloom is left and if I’m really crazy.
Here’s the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn’t crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a “bear trend” but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that’s held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don’t think that a trendline can’t be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
I give you MC’s Musings!
Posted by MC on Apr 3, 2008
Here is my first post in a new category called MC’s Musings.
Here I will relay all my thoughts on the current state of the market which I usually do with a chart.
I’ve yet to dial in the psych part of MY game but I feel my TA and charting is on par with some high level traders.
I strive to continue to help people profit from the markets which I enjoy doing.
Beware as I sometimes rant as well.
