It continues
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 30, 2008
Another day with strength in the stock market and strength in the dollar. The big bullish signal in the market today was the ability for the market to close at the highs as Oil moved up strong. As you know I have been bullish and this type of trading keeps me bullish. The dollar is still in the same story so I don’t have much to say my same bias continues in both markets.
time to get long?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 10, 2008
Well the Key pivot play did not trigger today and that play is off for now. I do now have a bullish stance going into the next couple days. The chart below shows a bullish divergence with the 7 period RSI. If we can break todays highs I expect us to head right up to the 38.2% fib as shorts get squeezed, I think the dollar can continue to rally helping give oil the much needed push lower.
Looking through some old thoughts of mine…
Posted by MC on May 12, 2008
“WWE looks like it may have based and try to pop in the near term. There is some solid resistance overhead though. I wonder what the overall market is gonna do, we may be near the base of the downtrend if we get positive confirmation tomorrow with any buyers and go on to break the channel.”
I’m learning alot by looking back at past thoughts and realizing patience is VERY important.
Here’s what we have…the blue dashed line is where I made the prior post on another site. You can see the bottom was put in as I called, but the “near term” was anything but reality. Thus my “patience” comment above. LOL
A bit after my post we had a test of the lows with macd divergence as a bullish signal. Also note this…basing under a long term MA like the 200ma here is a bullish sign often. Lots of eyes on that level and when it breaks it often goes BOOM!
In this case they gapped above the “supply zone” which is the blue boxed area and 200sma. They do this to accomplish 2 things, first this keeps those that bought in during consolidation from selling since they now are pretty well in the green and less fearful. This break away gap also keeps those not in yet from buying in at that level. The herd will buy in after it’s gone much higher, they just can’t take it anymore and think they are missing out. The laggards get in just in time for the hand off, pros take profit and the drop can begin. LOL
OH…who is “they” you might ask? That’s the big money, they run the show and they are good people to follow if you know their tricks.
Another tidbit besides the gap above “supply zones” from my arsenal…
Many focus on a 50/200ma cross. That’s great if you want to see what already happened. It’s often late if accurate at all (see the blue arrow). Try using a 21ema and a 200sma for better triggers. Why…easy, the short term is EMA because we want the most current data to be weighted and faster to fire a signal. The long term is SMA because that will reflect the more smoothed out and broad term data.
Ok and now a final note on WWE…the volume stepped in Friday as support at the 200sma/gap fill. That’s a low risk long for a bounce play right there. Gap fill backed by 200sma…double support backed by volume. 
Another post I seemed to have over looked I recapped using the link below. I picked the SPY mid term reversal 1 day before it happened. Fade the herd baby, don’t be afraid because news tells you to be. Be smart though and don’t try to catch a falling knife. 
http://www.tradersbase.com/forum/market-index-chatterbox/371-index-chatter.html#post3130
Have a good night!
MC
What a week for the markets!
Posted by MC on Apr 18, 2008
With premarket we are a hair over the rangebound resistance.
Not going to be easy to hold that, not to mention we have that 2nd area of structure resistance with the 50ma backing it so if we break it shouldn’t go far at right away.
Given this weekly chart, barring a disaster we will close above the downtrend. A pullback test of that new support and/or consolidation under the 50ma will probably be needed if this is the real deal. Disregard the volume, it’s not accurate since this is a TOS continuous chart and they have bugs to work out.
That’s my take anyhow
Monthly and Weekly look at the DIA which tracks the DOW
Posted by MC on Apr 6, 2008
Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let’s see how much doom n’ gloom is left and if I’m really crazy.
Here’s the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn’t crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a “bear trend” but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares.
Note the triangle we are in, descending. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma.
The uptrend that’s held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don’t think that a trendline can’t be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts.
Good trading,
MC
