Other than tonights Silver post…here’s my bias on the DOW!
Posted by MC on Oct 5, 2008
This is uncharted territory/circumstance. Nobody has a crystal ball so all I can do is give my 2 cents. 
Now that said I can begin to make a bull case but I’ll let the chart speak for itself because there more bear$hit on the chart than bull$hit.
Of course the last candle is 1 week in and hasn’t printed so we can sort of rule that out, although it HAS made a new low so don’t totally discard it. Macd histo has NO divergence in this monthly timeframe. In fact it’s just straight down with no flinching. Also there is room to move down to fully test support. I’d put absolute make or break support in the mid-high 9700’s myself. That’s all the bear case, added to the current trend you have a strong case for continuation down.
As for the bullish side it’s mainly the fact that there was buying pressure on both the last tests of the channel lows. BUT buying pressure does not equal a reversal 9/10 times. If we slide to lows at/or above that support on dried up volume with histo divergence that would show me the selling pressure has dried up. The fact that there was heavy buying pressure doesn’t discount the fact that for every buyer there was a seller. The selling pressure though somewhat offset was undeniable and panic like that won’t likely turn on a dime.
Big volume is a warning sign of a possible flush though most often there is more price action left where the market probes further for buying/selling pressure (unfinished business). I have yet to see a convincing case of bottoming action. I’m pretty fond of this setup…If we were in a bull trend and I saw the reverse action I just described I’d say look out below…in fact this was how I picked the 14k top on the Dow a year ago. 
People are on edge…based on my Volume Based Price chart put yourself in the auction along with the majority of the volume in this range. What would you feel if you just had 4 years of profits turn even or slightly red?
Still a bear bias for me, won’t effect my daytrades though thank god. 
OK…now you guys are gonna hate me
Posted by MC on Oct 1, 2008
It’s a disturbing lopsided image to me how we rose so exponentially with no retrace. From the breakout in the early 80’s there has been no real looking back which is not healthy. We had Y2K which was a slight balance period and was treated like the end of the world when it was just a minor blip in the big picture. I almost drew a mid channel line in but it really would blur the reality of this market. And the longer they prop us up here the further and harder the fall will eventually be IMO.
Def keep in mind that this years candle isn’t said and done with. So a yearly chart now is a tad premature. But at some point the market has to come down and probe the channel, it can’t go up exponentially forever fellas. If they prop it up and continue the bubble look to Y2K levels for support and if those fail we will have a Hinderburg type of market bursting.
Not doom n’ gloom, well maybe it is…sort of. If we see coiling or rejection candles at the top of this channel or a break of Y2K lows we know we are in for deep $hit. There will be a massive bear cycle, some estimate it to be 10-12 years long. So we won’t just drop to the base of the channel overnight but at some point I do imagine price action will drive it there.
Good luck boys n’ girls. 
No bailout is needed…the US needs to come back to earth for a bit IMO!
Posted by MC on Sep 30, 2008
All kidding aside…this is a CORRECTION, not a world ending meltdown. They let the bubble go on for WAY too long, made lending way to easy and cheap and now people are losing money and have become panic stricken again like back in Y2K. WTF, people like the bubble profits from 1995 forward but act like Chicken Little when the same ATR hits the downside? The BIG gains can come with equal or bigger losses…that’s how ATR works. LOL The market BADLY needs a real correction, otherwise the higher she goes the bigger and longer the bear cycle will be. We are in a bull cycle that has probably near run it’s course. Perhaps 1 more push but I really feel it’s nearing time for a full bear cycle.
I didn’t use log scale…this illustrates the wild ATR our market is saturated in.
Heatmap of 6 month performance on the Snp500
Posted by MC on Jul 1, 2008
How about an S&P 500 heatmap of 6 month performance. This shows what’s actually holding up since the bear came out about 7-9 months ago.
