Have OIL prices topped?
Posted by MC on Jun 23, 2008
I posted this chart on the TradersBASE forums back on the 15th of June, but seems I missed posting it here. 
We are still in that box so nothing has changed YET.
I found then, and still find that volume on the high fishy. And there’s now lots of news about speculation and possible legislation surrounding the insanity we call OIL. I think that may have been a case of insiders getting tipped off and selling into the strength, that sure is what it looks like based on my TA knowledge anyhow. Swamping volume at highs is usually distribution, and now leading up to bad news for oil IMO we could get a collapse and reversal shortly. That was my call then, and it’s still my feeling now. If oil plays can breakout of those box like ranges with volume then my tune would have to change, but I’m feeling pretty good about the short side here. There has been posturing inside the chop up here, but I feel that 33 mil tells the story.
Good luck, don’t pick a top, let the top come to you. 
MC
since oil has been stuck in this box for some time now I would expect to see a break out the box to the upside and failure to hold, that would be my signal to short oil.
Could very well test that high or inch above it. If it’s a test that confirms the short side, the volume will be the giveaway.
I’ll update the chart later tonight.
Looks like distribution on the chart of QM as well. Very heavy volume today, and with a huge volume spike right as prices approached last week’s high near 138 which smell quite a bit like manipulation/distribution. I’m not seeing any contrarian signals to suggest we have reached an overbought extreme or a long term reversal, but, there looks like solid resistance looming at 138, so the path of least resistance is probably to head down toward the bottom of the range.