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How was America built on IOU’s???

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
21 Jun.

http://www.tradersbase.com/forum/general-discussion-misc/757-propaganda-america.html#post6401

If you haven’t seen the videos they are a must watch! America is like a pinksheet penny stock, pump and dump. The question is when will the real dump begin…the pump is never ending in the news and media. We surely saw some dumping on that HUGE drop, but the bailout $ was used to prop the market up IMO. Pump up the jam. :(


Today we smacked that shorter term trendline (I highlighted it red) I had there all along and got some rejection/selling pressure. I’m kind of expecting a push a bit higher to 9000-9100 which is HEAVY resistance from so many angles and concepts. 9000 is a good psychological level to seek a reversal just by itself. I do anticipate it upthrusting even higher where we may get massive hidden selling, but being delayed order execution I can’t time the 401k moves as well as I’d like. I’ll just do my best and try to sell into a push up/strength. We’re bound to get some volatility spikes shortly, remember that a candles CLOSE is all that matters, though the wicks should get wild showing hints along the way.

Sometime next week I’m moving another 30% of my 401k to stable value. That will put my “stable” funds at about 70% of the port. I’m just not willing to risk this resistance holding with what little of my nest egg is left.
I will likely ditch the remainder at a later date if we push higher, for now I’m happy with the allocation and strategy. If somehow bulls push this thing I can always shift back to other funds, but for now I wanna put my $ where my mouth and my TA is.

Remember back on 5/12 is where I cut the first slice to a “stable” fund. Scaling out FTW…there’s no telling where on the dot this will stop so I’d prefer to cut risk down as we rise incrementally.
I could be dead wrong and bulls could make this year a legendary one…I’m sticking to my TA and laws of probabilities myself though. The macro trend is my friend…for now.

This new weekly chart shows the Point of Control being tested already. The green arrow is upside potential (assuming the supply range holds) and the red arrow is the downside potential (assuming the green support levels don’t hold). Range bound is ok to make moves in, but either use the range extremes for entry and stops or employ some scaling method using the extreme levels as stops. Or use range breaks to enter of course…breakouts are a very sound way of trading. In range the market is said to be “in balance”, and when balance is disrupted it tends to move to the next level of “balance” for testing. Enjoy!

DJI chart…a longer term view

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
04 Jun.

That red level would push us to fill the long wick on that wild candle down. That’s market excess and there’s lots of pain/supply to be found in that dead cat bounce area.

If we hit mid 9000’s and show rejection on the tighter timeframes (daily, 60 min) I’ll be unloading some more of my 401k into stable value funds as planned. That’s the area I could foresee capping this rally.

If we pierce into that red supply zone I could see investing but with a trade style stop. Once inside that range we MUST hold or I would run to the hills as they say. Though all in all I think one is nuts to buy long into all this supply. Bulls either bought awhile ago or they should wait and pray for supply to prove broken and buy new found support. The support would be the top of the red zone and should be confluent with the bottom line of the downward sloping channel. Simple as that IMO.

I’m not saying longs can’t squeak more $ out of the rally, just that the upside to downside risk is rather bearish at this point.

Updated ES chart

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
01 Jun.

If this can hold we may see some pained bears running back into the woods for a bit.


The Nasdaq may be leading paper markets higher.?. It’s already back into that bearish channel while other indices are still stuck in range. I’d be interested to see a test of that resistance turned support and the channel to play out to the upside. Keep in mind it’s a BEARISH channel so as the market moves the slope degrades and damages profit potential from longs. Don’t be a full on bull unless and until that channel gives way to a new upward slope. Cut longs at obvious resistance and reduce exposure.


Notice how the 3 indices are stuck at the 38.2% fib level. (Well on my charts it shows the 61.8% because I draw them backwards to get my extensions projected in the direction of the current trend.) All this hype and hooplah and we’ve only regained 38.2% of the violent wave down. Amazing how the news can twist things to make people feel the way they want them to feel.


ES and YM both have room to go before that 50ma. That ma is going to match up with the bigger downward channels lower trendline soon.


Silver and gold are both looking strong. You can see Gold holding and having the market excess defended pretty well here. A test of the 100% if not the 121% fib is pretty likely IMO…especially given the USD woes with Russia and what not.


If silver can break this trendline it has a great upside potential. Metals may be making some headlines soon.

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
17 May.

A monthly chart shows a reversion to the bearish upper trendline from the Y2K recession.

Long term the bailout inflation will catch up…but for now that seems to be propping the market up and could cause some very interesting times ahead. JMHO.

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
17 May.

Again…pointing out that sexy NAHL divergence as a very good case for a bottom longer term. I still am anticipating lower volume tests of lows or some new lows at some point but I would be careful betting against this rally just yet without more confirmation. If you rode the rally this isn’t a horrible place to take partial profit and reduce exposure though…just in case.

Posted by MC - Inside Uncategorized
13 May.

IMO VIX has shown it’s hand. Channel broke up…5 min version of this chart shows a test of the channel that was held up as resistance turned support.
Also note how they gapped below all that support this AM. That’s a bearish shook n’ jive. We’re coming into resistance here…not a bad spot to look to get short IMO.

I moved 38% of my 401k to stable value funds expecting the worst at some point. Saving some to transfer should the rally continue after a pullback which is possible of course. The order executed at close yesterday so it’s lookin like a pretty good move at this point.

A pullback test to that trendline we broke up from is ideal if one expect the rally to continue IMO. The macd histo divergence indicated a correction was likely…volume confirmed the modest and declining participation.

I have little doubt long term we test lows if not lower…that’s why I shifted the 401k around.


Weekly update too.

What are you guys thinkin?