Now the good stocks are getting hit
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 2, 2008
Now the good stocks are getting hit
Even as the market has been getting slammed there were some stocks that would rally strong like the market was just fine. The past few days these stocks have begun to falter. below are a handful of these stocks. Is it a buying op for these stocks or is nothing safe for longs?
Now that the fed is over….
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 25, 2008
Now that the FOMC is over it’s time to look at stock patterns…………
Dollar strength
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 23, 2008
Dollar Strength
I have been posting multiple charts on shorting the Euro, I have been looking for a reverse ‘W’ formation to be confirmed and we almost has it today but the close just was not low enough. I am still bearish on the Euro and can’t wait to see what happens the rest of this week with the FOMC so soon. Gold also took a big hit today as the dollar gained strength, if the dollar can stay strong I expect much downside in both the Euro and Gold. Below you can see a couple charts on Euro and Gold.
Reverse ‘W’ on Euro
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 19, 2008
Reverse ‘W’ on Euro?
A couple days ago we completed we we call the ‘W’ formation breakout on the USD/JPY pair. you can see the final chart and post on that here http://tradersbase.com/tb-trade-review/w-formation-with-fibs/index.html Now I see a possible reverse ‘W’ formation in the EUR/USD pair so keep an eye out on this pair. I think the swing low support will be broker if we go test it again.
‘W’ formation with Fibs
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 12, 2008
days ago I told readers about the ‘W’ formation in the USD/JPY forex pair. That trade has worked out great, I wanted to show you a chart of the formation along with fib extentions to find targets for the trade. In general I will place my orders in front of the target to make sure I get filled. The ‘W’ formation is an easy one to spot. The entry comes after a flag type pullback and breakout, the targets are found by using fib extensions, see the chart below.
time to get long?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 10, 2008
Well the Key pivot play did not trigger today and that play is off for now. I do now have a bullish stance going into the next couple days. The chart below shows a bullish divergence with the 7 period RSI. If we can break todays highs I expect us to head right up to the 38.2% fib as shorts get squeezed, I think the dollar can continue to rally helping give oil the much needed push lower.
Charts to stare at
Posted by Cire2222 on May 29, 2008
Thought I would toss up a couple charts to keep an eye on
VIX, SPY , TRAN
Posted by Cire2222 on May 25, 2008
The past week we had all eyes on the VIX, Transports and the key stock indicies. We got the breakout moves that we were ready for on all these markets. Here are some follow-up charts
Looking through some old thoughts of mine…
Posted by MC on May 12, 2008
“WWE looks like it may have based and try to pop in the near term. There is some solid resistance overhead though. I wonder what the overall market is gonna do, we may be near the base of the downtrend if we get positive confirmation tomorrow with any buyers and go on to break the channel.”
I’m learning alot by looking back at past thoughts and realizing patience is VERY important.
Here’s what we have…the blue dashed line is where I made the prior post on another site. You can see the bottom was put in as I called, but the “near term” was anything but reality. Thus my “patience” comment above. LOL
A bit after my post we had a test of the lows with macd divergence as a bullish signal. Also note this…basing under a long term MA like the 200ma here is a bullish sign often. Lots of eyes on that level and when it breaks it often goes BOOM!
In this case they gapped above the “supply zone” which is the blue boxed area and 200sma. They do this to accomplish 2 things, first this keeps those that bought in during consolidation from selling since they now are pretty well in the green and less fearful. This break away gap also keeps those not in yet from buying in at that level. The herd will buy in after it’s gone much higher, they just can’t take it anymore and think they are missing out. The laggards get in just in time for the hand off, pros take profit and the drop can begin. LOL
OH…who is “they” you might ask? That’s the big money, they run the show and they are good people to follow if you know their tricks.
Another tidbit besides the gap above “supply zones” from my arsenal…
Many focus on a 50/200ma cross. That’s great if you want to see what already happened. It’s often late if accurate at all (see the blue arrow). Try using a 21ema and a 200sma for better triggers. Why…easy, the short term is EMA because we want the most current data to be weighted and faster to fire a signal. The long term is SMA because that will reflect the more smoothed out and broad term data.
Ok and now a final note on WWE…the volume stepped in Friday as support at the 200sma/gap fill. That’s a low risk long for a bounce play right there. Gap fill backed by 200sma…double support backed by volume. 
Another post I seemed to have over looked I recapped using the link below. I picked the SPY mid term reversal 1 day before it happened. Fade the herd baby, don’t be afraid because news tells you to be. Be smart though and don’t try to catch a falling knife. 
http://www.tradersbase.com/forum/market-index-chatterbox/371-index-chatter.html#post3130
Have a good night!
MC
The search for an oil top
Posted by Cire2222 on May 10, 2008
We were able to catch a top in gold, a top in the Euro and the last attempt for a top in oil failed ( I thought they would move together) So now here I am looking for a top in oil again. I would wait for confirmation before making a move but here is a thought on Oil. The EUR/USD hit a consolidation phase, broke out and ran hard to the 261.8 Fib extension with once sharp quick pullback reaction on the way up then found a top. When I Pulled up the USO (oil tracking ETF) I see a similar situation. See the charts below
