Dollar strong
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 3, 2008
Just last night I posted about the Dollar being a key market right now and boy did it make headlines today. Fed Chief Ben had some hawkish words on inflation and the market now thinks the rate cuts are over, the fed fund futures are even pricing in a chance of a rate hike. The EUR/USD was the best spot to be as a dollar bull just like I mentioned last night. I also like the USD/JPY pair but I do not like its intra-day correlation to the stock market with this recent weakness. The USD/JPY didn’t give me the close I wanted but I continue to think it will move higher. The dollar and oil should continue to be key markets for now.
what to do…….
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 2, 2008
Well today got pretty ugly in the stock market but there has been no technical changes. I will remain with a neutral to bearish bias for now, the nasdaq is the only index looking strong. One critical market to watch right now is the US dollar. I think the Dollar is really at a critical point and could stage a decent rally soon if we can hold up. The dollar did take a hit today but no technical damage was done. So keep an eye out on the forex market. EUR/USD would be my pair of choice with USD/JPY in 2nd both are at a low risk entry point. My only concern with the USD/JPY pair is it tends to move with the stock market and the stock market has some bearish signals.
VIX, SPY , TRAN
Posted by Cire2222 on May 25, 2008
The past week we had all eyes on the VIX, Transports and the key stock indicies. We got the breakout moves that we were ready for on all these markets. Here are some follow-up charts
They broke down………
Posted by Cire2222 on May 22, 2008
if you refer to my post yesterday( http://tradersbase.com/daily-review/dow-breaks-trend-others-do-not/index.html ) I talked about a couple markets holding trend lines that should break down this week. Well they all broke except for the VIX. Dow broke down yesterday and today the S&P broke down and the transports broke down. To my suprise the VIX did break it’s down trend but did not close above it. This means to me that the fear is not baked into this market yet and we could have more room to fall. The markets should find a little support here as we approach the 50ema and a piror breakout level that has acted as support a couple times. I would like to get some charts up but it’s really late. So look for a little bounce or some chop but I do expect more selling.
Dow breaks trend, others do not
Posted by Cire2222 on May 20, 2008
Today we saw the Dow close below its uptrend line, Bearish signal. However the S&P and the dow transports (been a market leader)are still holding the uptrend and the VIX is still holding downtrend. What does this mean? Is the Dow leading the way down? I think that this market wants to break down and give us a little correction off this rally. If the S&P breaks back down through 1400 level I would expect the selling to continue. The fact that we broke past the 200MA and the 50%fib couldn’t hold is keeping me bearish right now.
$UVOL/$DVOL Comparison indicator…
Posted by MC on May 14, 2008
Chan provided us with a link on this setup in the chat some time ago. It came up again today and I wanted to touch on one possible use for this comparison tool. 
I also wanted to touch on this, if you were in chat today you should have caught some of this action. Cire, Chan and myself were very active in the forums live chat and had great results with 3 sets of eyes on the market working together. This is teamwork at its best, and I view TB members as a team. Please don’t hesitate to join the team, it’s free and you can then work with us on deciphering the market each day.
5/12/08 Review and trade set-up video
Posted by Cire2222 on May 12, 2008
This is the first attempt at hosting a video direct to our server and not from youtube, so let me know if you guys have problems. You will need to be able to view flash media.
http://tradersbase.com/tbvideos/cire2222/512blog.swf
What happened today?
Posted by Cire2222 on May 7, 2008
A fairly large sell off today in the stock market. The selling came in hard mid-day. On the technical side not much damage has been done to the bulls yet but we are coming down into a key support zone, I see at least another 100 down points and 10 s&p points lower before we hit a support area. If that breaks then we could give up alot of this recent rally very fast so be cautious.
A day of retracement
Posted by Cire2222 on May 5, 2008
Today was retracement action after some big moves in many markets. We saw the stock market pullback after a solid run, gold popped after it’ big sell off and the Dollar gave a little back today. No significant technical moves were made and the trend in those markets remains the same. I will sit on the sidelines waiting for a signal, I don’t want to force any moves right now.
The best way to daytrade FED day
Posted by Cire2222 on Apr 30, 2008
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This is the strategy I used today. It is one of the best ways to daytrade FED day, DO NOTHING. The days that the FOMC announcement comes are wild and exciting but placing a bet on the outcome is very dangerous and more of a gamble than anything else. The biggest problem with daytrading FOMC is that you can be right on direction but get wiggled out. The market will knee jerk in both directions taking out stops on longs and shorts, then it will continue a move. So even if your right on direction there is a good chance you will get stopped out of your play before capturing gains, Sure the market can knee jerk in your direction first and hit your target but do you want to place that bet? I don’t
