A failed signal is the best signal
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 7, 2008
A failed signal is the best signal
Some people say that a failed signal is the best signal. Im not sure if it the best but often times if you catch a true failure then you can nail a big move. One thing that I look for is what I think is a fake breakout used by shorts as a chance to dump into some buying, giving me the heads up a big move down is about to occur. Today I got a great example of this in the S&P mini futures. Below are 3 charts of the 5min ES from todays action, these will help give you a rough idea of what I saw hapen in the moments leading up to the sell off.
part 1 - what everyone sees setting up
part 2 - the fake breakout, then complete failure ( the bottom of that word bubble cut off the word failure)
part 3 - the result
Now the good stocks are getting hit
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 2, 2008
Now the good stocks are getting hit
Even as the market has been getting slammed there were some stocks that would rally strong like the market was just fine. The past few days these stocks have begun to falter. below are a handful of these stocks. Is it a buying op for these stocks or is nothing safe for longs?
A look at the monthly
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 30, 2008
Today we came to the end of an ugly month and ugly first half of 2008 so I wanted to take a step back and look at the picture of a long term monthly chart. As we sit now things do not look good. We finally got a cross of the 8 and 21 EMA and a close below the 50EMA. In the past when this situation occured it was rare to see the market rally from this point on without at least one more significant drop. I would continue to be cautious in this market. I will continue to day trade and keep the swing trade money in other markets or on the sidelines until I can get a better idea of what this market is going to do.
FED day upon us
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 24, 2008
FED DAY
Well tomorrow is FED day. I have said it before and I’ll say it again, the best way to play FED day is described in the image below
KEY PIVOT PLAYS
As for the key pivot play in the Euro I mentioned last night there was NOT a trigger for entry. Gold did not trigger either and the S&P set up I mentioned might occur didn’t take place, It would of required a positive close. The good news is, there are no open Key pivot plays going into FED day, you can rest easy. I hope a set up comes soon, I am anxious to play one again
Down with the Euro?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 16, 2008
DOWN WITH THE EURO?
I’m looking for another down move in the EURO and i think we are starting to get a decent shorting op here. The Euro has tested these recent lows 3 times now. It is rare to see a triple bottom, the move tends to go with the third test. With that in mind I am looking to start picking away at a short position, I expect a break of those lows and have target right infront of the fib projections, see chart below.
In dead mans zone?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 12, 2008
after looking at the daily chart I can’t find many reasons to make too many moves right here right now. With a bearish view it’s a bit late in the fall to take a low risk short entry, with a bullish view there is very little support and very little signs of a reversal. Times Like these I just like to day trade and stay out of swings. This late in the game it may be best to just wait and see how the week ends. For now I wanted to post a chart on has happened and also a couple charts that I came up with on a search for a bull case.
ES 5 min chart of todays action
time to get long?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 10, 2008
Well the Key pivot play did not trigger today and that play is off for now. I do now have a bullish stance going into the next couple days. The chart below shows a bullish divergence with the 7 period RSI. If we can break todays highs I expect us to head right up to the 38.2% fib as shorts get squeezed, I think the dollar can continue to rally helping give oil the much needed push lower.
were we given a warning?
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 8, 2008
Just something I noticed the day before fridays large sell-off. About mid day thrusday we had been trending up all day, then a quick spike down came in with the largest volume of the day before the market continued it’s rally higher took give the look of a very bullish day at the close. On friday as soon as that same area was re-tested the surge in selling came again. Black box selling?? who knows. Below you can see a 2 day 5 min chart of the S&P mini futures.
Oil crushes all in it’s path
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 8, 2008
Well the dollars solid attempt at a decent rally was put to a screeching halt as Oil exploded to it’s highs. The USD/JPY and EUR/USD trades were good while they lasted but I was stopped out on what was left of my positions. The stock market was destroyed on friday, below you can see a couple follow up charts to a prior post of mine in regard to the SPY breaking down and the VIX breaking higher days before this sell off, this is why I have had a bearish stance. After a large move like friday I do not like to take any new swing positions right away. If your currently short just manage your position and if your on the sidelines stay there, it’s in your best interest. I will continue to have a bearish outlook on this market until the technicals tell me otherwise.
not much changed
Posted by Cire2222 on Jun 4, 2008
Past couple days I have been talking about Dollar strength. The two places I wanted to be were EUR/USD and USD/JPY, these trades have been working out well. In the charts below you can see the EUR just getting no love the past few days and the USD/JPY moving up and looks like it may be breaking out of the classic ‘W’ formation. I would recommend taking some profits off the table here but No reason to take the whole position off, both these trades should continue the move.
