In the morning we will get the employment numbers. These numbers can really move the markets and I fully expect a wild move this time. Traders and investors are all wondering just how bad the economy is, the employment number can tell you a lot about the state of our economy. Technicals tell me the dollar and the stock market will continue to rally, on the other hand I expect this report to be worse than expected. I am going to wait for the reaction to make moves, there should be good day trading tomorrow.
On another note im headed to vegas for the weekend, I’ll be putting some more money to work on the craps tables!
and for a quick laugh
I wanted to point out some volume indications On both a weekly and daily basis that seem to indicate bullish activity
Below is a weekly chart of the SPY (S&P tracking ETF) I wanted to note the volume at the pivots
Drill down to a daily chart and see more bullish volume action
Another day with strength in the stock market and strength in the dollar. The big bullish signal in the market today was the ability for the market to close at the highs as Oil moved up strong. As you know I have been bullish and this type of trading keeps me bullish. The dollar is still in the same story so I don’t have much to say my same bias continues in both markets.
Sorry for the lack of posting on my part the last couple days, I have had some personal things going on. But as I have been saying day after day IT’S ALL ABOUT THE DOLLAR. This move in the dollar is important and could be a huge turning point. I expect more strength in the dollar in the next few weeks. As for the stock market I remain bullish. Consumer confidence comes in a tad higher then expect and the market rockets higher…….? Since when does that report matter? I think today was a great example of the interest of investors to buy buy buy while things are cheap. Any bit of good news gets tons of buying. This is very bullish, Lets hope it can continue. Right now we are in a news driven market and it will continue to make wild moves. Stay nible!
Wow, what a bloody day in the markets. We opened flat and fell all day with no signs of buying. The only bullish note I can find today is the lighter volume but I won’t read too deep in to that tid bit. The dollar remains strong and I really think this could be the start of a huge move uo in the dollar, keep your eyes on it. As for tomorrow, I expect a bounce in oil and a pullback in the dollar. The stock market should show somewhat of a follow through of today down move in early trading. This is going to continue to be a wild market so stay nimble!
On another note, there is a key pivot set up in gold tomorrow however I do not want to take this trade nor make it part of the mock portfolio due to the risk reward. After my analysis of the trade I found that I can’t expect much upside in the trade and it is not worth the risk. However for those of you who would like to take the risk on this play get long on a move to 931.50 I would expect not much more than a $5 move up from there as a target so place your exit at around 935-937. Place your stop @ 919. This risk/reward to this is not in favor enough to take the trade but I still feel this is a high probability play that can help you grab a quick $500 per contract.
Mark another one in the books for the bulls today. We may not of had another monster rally or monster reversal but one thing that did catch my eye was the lack of selling. Looking at intra-day charts of the indicies I see that as we came down off the days highs there we no big volume on top of that the market tested the lows of the day multiple times without any selling pressure to move it lower. One more bullish sign is the lack of confidence in this rally. Every trader on TV and every trader in the forums I browse seems to think that this market just MUST have some selling to end this week, this is the type of thinking that causes the intense bear market up thrusts. Right now I do not see any resistance until around 11800 on the dow and 1300 on the S&P. I don’t think it will be a smooth ride there but I do think we should test those levels. Also notice another dollar rally day, I have been telling you to watch this day after day this is a significant move for the dollar. Grains, metals and oil have all come down in a big way, tides are starting to turn.
Some earnings news after hours yesterday send the market gapping down big this morning only for the bulls to make a strong come back and end the day on a solid note. The market has been acting great recently. Bad news gets pushed to the side and any good news gets a ton of buying. As I said last night, the dollar is making a move behind the scenes. Today was a strong day for the dollar and I think has given it that extra umph at the right time to get a serious dollar bull move going. This should be good for the stock market. The other thing I wanted to touch on again is the financials. If you have bottom fished at a financial stock and your stock has NOT had a huge bull move in the last few trading days then that is a sure sign to GET OUT! Again some that come to mind are LEH and DSL, I do not like the way these are acting and I see no reason another Financial company won’t go under. until then, stay nimble!
P.S A key pivot play may set up in the stock market soon so stay tuned!
Now that we have kicked off the week I wanted to do a follow up on last weeks weekly chart that was posted here. We came down and tagged one of our weekly downtrend lines. Now the question was, and still is, was that a solid support level or is the true downtrend line yet to be tested? We have bounced before in this bear market and came right down to new lows, will it happen again? We kicked off this week with a slow light volume down day, however after hours reports from Apple and American express send the futures falling down in the after hours trading. As i type this the dow futures are down 100+ points. Of course this doesn’t mean we open that way but it does usually mean we will see more volume and more action in tomorrows trading. One thing I would recommend keeping an eye on is the dollar. If the dollar can give some significant strength in the next couple days I would expect some short covering to send it in a decent size rally. This will be bullish for the stock market. As far as earnings go, the financials have not given too much dissapointment letting me know that alot of the financial fears are baked in to this market. I think the big question many want to know is, will another large financial institution take a dump? Lehman, Wamu and Wachovia are a couple names that come to mind. Fears like that are what can keep investors on the sidelines waiting, these are the people that will come jumping into the market once they begin to feel they may have missed the bottom. Thats what can keep a short cover rally on the move.
Well what a bullish day we had. Financials had a HUGE HUGE day, Oil fell another $5 and the dollar gained ground. Is this the bottom? Well to me this was a technical move but is a significant one. I do think the bounce will continue to give us a bear market bounce at a minimum. One thing that did catch my eye was the volume in some of the financials. Concidering that financials are what lead the way today you would expect massive volume on this type of move. Some did have huge volume and others didn’t. There will be banks that survive and I would imagine there will be more banks that join Indymac in the grave. On a day like today I would look at the banks that had HUGE volume as the banks that have the potential to survive and make out just fine. I would view the others as stocks that just went along for the ride and maybe had some shorts covering. I would keep that in mind if your ready to jump in and pick a bottom in these financial stocks.
Today oil took it’s biggest one day fall in 17 years so what does this mean? Sure it was a significant move but on a techincal view the move did no damage, the trend is still holding. Let’s hope some real damage is done in the next few days/weeks.
