Wow, what a bloody day in the markets.  We opened flat and fell all day with no signs of buying. The only bullish note I can find today is the lighter volume but I won’t read too deep in to that tid bit.   The dollar remains strong and I really think this could be the start of a huge move uo in the dollar, keep your eyes on it.   As for tomorrow, I expect a bounce in oil and a pullback in the dollar. The stock market should show somewhat of a follow through of today down move in early trading.  This is going to continue to be a wild market so stay nimble!

On another note, there is a key pivot set up in gold tomorrow however I do not want to take this trade nor make it part of the mock portfolio due to the risk reward. After my analysis of the trade I found that I can’t expect much upside in the trade and it is not worth the risk.   However for those of you who would like to take the risk on this play get long on a move to 931.50  I would expect not much more than a $5 move up from there as a target so place your exit at around 935-937. Place your stop @ 919.  This risk/reward to this is not in favor enough to take the trade but I still feel this is a high probability play that can help you grab a quick $500 per contract.

Today we were stopped out on the last Gold contract of our key pivot short to complete the trade. The final result of the trade was a gain of $1100.   So far the first 3 gold key pivot trades have gained a total of $7,200.   For a table of prior trades, current trades and results please see the ‘Trade rsults’ link at the top of the page  that brings you yo this link  http://tradersbase.com/test  

A quick update on the current gold key pivot play.  So far we have had our first target hit @ 917 for a gain of $1100 on the first contract.  The second contract is still open, I want to lower the stop loss on that last contract to 928 ( our entry price).  This gives us a worst case scenario of a $1100 gain on the trade.   I see us holding support levels here and I was not happy with the lack of selling in gold with oil dropping $5 today.  We are trading @ 920 right now, I want to place our second target at 915 to see if we can get our exit tagged tonight or  in the morning.

The gold key pivot trade already hit the first target of 917.  I was wot now move the stop down to 938. Now the worst we can do is walk away with a $100 gain to cover costs.    The second target is still open, we are on a ride for free.

Key pivot play in goldSorry for the late night post but there is a gold key pivot play set up in gold RIGHT NOW.   The trade will be taken in the August 2008 contract.  The trigger was @ 928.00  we ticked below that so the set up is complete. Enter short @ 928 or better. Our initial stop loss is set @ 949 and the first target is 917, second target is open.  GOOD LUCK!!!!

FED DAY

Well tomorrow is FED day.  I have said it before and I’ll say it again, the best way to play FED day is described in the image below

KEY PIVOT PLAYS

As for the key pivot play in the Euro I mentioned last night there was NOT a trigger for entry. Gold did not trigger either and the S&P set up I mentioned might occur didn’t take place, It would of required a positive close. The good news is, there are no open Key pivot plays going into FED day, you can rest easy.  I hope a set up comes soon, I am anxious to play one again

A couple of you have been asking me for the next key pivot play. I know there has not been one for a couple weeks but we must be patient and not force plays.  Gold was so close to a key pivot set up today but fell to fast in one day for a low risk Key pivot play. Good news is,  We may have a set up in the S&P soon depending on how the market trades tomorrow.   

 There is a Key pivot entry set up in the EUR/USD forex pair, for the entry see the chart on my last blog post below, it is a break of todays lows (1.5468)  this must happen Tuesday for the trigger to be valid.   I will not be playing it in typical Key pivot play fashion as I am already short based on some other set ups I have posted in the blog about.  1.5220 is a solid target on this play, 1.5120 for a more aggressive trader. I will not be tracking the Euro play in the Track record section.

Take off your orders for the Key pivot play in the S&P futures play.  The market traded below what would of been our stop before hitting our entry trigger so all orders are off and the trade is no longer set up.  I will keep you posted on the next trade.

Okay, today’s action set up a key pivot play in the S&P futures.  The trigger for the entry will be to get long on a move to 1373.50 in the S&P mini SEPTEMBER contract. make sure to note this is the september contract not the june. The reason we want the september contract is because the index futures will rollover on the 12th.  So we must hit 1373.50 tomorrow, if it’s not hit tomorrow then the trade is off.  So the set up looks like this:

/ESU8
Entry trigger Long - 1373.50 (must happen on 6/10/08)
Target 1 - 1384.00
Target 2 - open
Stop Loss - 1352.25