Is this gold breakout legit yet?
Posted by MC on Jan 31, 2009
Here’s my view. Gold mini did break the upper trendline on the channel which is bullish. I weigh the horizontal support more heavily though, because through volume and price action you can see where supply is likely to enter the market and slow or kill momentum. If the trendline tests and has low selling volume or a wild bounce with a long wick from a recovery bounce I’d consider this a buy. I need another day of action to determine whether they dumped into this supply zone or not. My hunch is the channel break speaks for itself. 
DJI chop suey
Posted by MC on Jan 31, 2009
This wild rangebound chop is giving daytraders sick volatility and their massive liquidity has kept things stuck here for about 16 weeks now. 8000-9000 is the closing range, 1000+ freekin points back and forth!!! There are certainly long term participants in the mix and the next move will likely be very telling and hopefully will provide a clean trend for the investors and swing traders to follow. Anyone not daytrading here is playing with fire. I’m leaning towards a bear rally just based on how hyperextended the price action is from the ma’s and a few other things I track. But bias means nothing and I’m waiting for a trend to show itself. I do daytrade the YM (dow mini) from time to time but the volatility is whiptastic and I limit my exposure bigtime.
Good luck traders/investors.
Posted by MC on Jan 27, 2009
Substantial VIX divergence here. Bulls just haven’t done much with the VIX dropping off.
I still can’t discount that the heavy trend is bearish and all the volume we’ve seen hasn’t had us break down further though.
This is a good place to hurry up and wait I think. 
A side will show itself soon enough.
That short from EOD Friday paid off quick…now I’m long
Posted by MC on Jan 20, 2009
TOS has a habit of fcuking wicks up…ignore the wild top half of that last candle on this chart.
This is why I got long…coming into support. I was a bit premature on entry but it’s a small position with low risk.
EOD I’ll be watching closely.
Naz/Q’s short position taken Friday EOD
Posted by MC on Jan 20, 2009
Here’s the NQ futures hourly. This is the chart that made me enter a short position on the q’s Friday EOD. Very possibly a double top with big effort and no result. Backed by indicator divergence and solid overhead resistance. If there’s a legit breakout I’ll be the 1st to reverse the position as we could get a short squeeze if enough buying pressure enters.
NAHL divergence pointing to a possible bottom…
Posted by MC on Jan 12, 2009
NAHL put up significant divergence a bit back pointing to a potential bottom level, at least for the mid term. I intended to post this but forgot in my scatterbrain world. 
Volume was kind of big on the candle for last week without follow through so another test of lows (hopefully lower volume) isn’t out of the question IMO.
Posted by MC on Jan 3, 2009
Average volume is not a bad thing here. If you see a narrow price range with very large volume that’s more concerning at a major supply zone like the one we’re at. Otherwise I suspect we grind upwards like Cire suggested on HSM, possibly triggering a violent short squeeze. If they can push it a bit higher there is more room for an upwards correction IMO.
Very large or Very low volume are noteworthy, average volume tends to point to the interim trend continuing generally.
