Biggest one day gain for financial sector ever……
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 16, 2008
Well what a bullish day we had. Financials had a HUGE HUGE day, Oil fell another $5 and the dollar gained ground. Is this the bottom? Well to me this was a technical move but is a significant one. I do think the bounce will continue to give us a bear market bounce at a minimum. One thing that did catch my eye was the volume in some of the financials. Concidering that financials are what lead the way today you would expect massive volume on this type of move. Some did have huge volume and others didn’t. There will be banks that survive and I would imagine there will be more banks that join Indymac in the grave. On a day like today I would look at the banks that had HUGE volume as the banks that have the potential to survive and make out just fine. I would view the others as stocks that just went along for the ride and maybe had some shorts covering. I would keep that in mind if your ready to jump in and pick a bottom in these financial stocks.
Oil takes a smack in the face
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 15, 2008
Today oil took it’s biggest one day fall in 17 years so what does this mean? Sure it was a significant move but on a techincal view the move did no damage, the trend is still holding. Let’s hope some real damage is done in the next few days/weeks.
The bigger picture
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 14, 2008
I wanted to look at the bigger picutre as we kick off the week. Below is a 3 year weeks chart of the s&p 500. As you can see we are just now testing the bottom of a downward channel. Can this area hold and can we get a bounce in the market here is the question? Obviously it’s going to take some signaificant news to get a really bull move here. If we break this channel there is another that has formed and it would not suprise me if we go test the bottom of that before we get any bounce. Good luck in this wild market!
DOW is near the point of control…will she hold tight?
Posted by MC on Jul 12, 2008
I’ve added some more volume by price support lines and updated the chart.
To me this shows the volume and where the majority entered the market after the Y2K bear. Almost 2 years of consolidation setting up the bear to bull transition. No doubt about it…this is [B]THE [/B]key price pocket. Volume = market sentiment and it’s staring us in the face. Now the question is do the big money players have chips on the table still, if so they support that line…if not they let it tank through and get in MUCH below that pocket of support.
The above I posted on the web on Jan. 23rd.
The levels I posted back then are coming up. 10,700 remains the most important level I can see. If we stay above that, the point of control is upheld and long term investors will hold albeit with a load of steamy crap in their pants at this point. If we break below there with conviction (especially close below) I’d look for massive bloodshed to accompany the crap in the pants.
I’m looking at that volume pocket as a fault line, if we break that open it’s going to be like an earthquake when we have plate shifting at the earths core.
Here’s an updated chart. In bell curve terms this is a chance to revert and test the MEAN. This testing is something the market does all the time on different timeframes. It’s how value is probed in a 2 way auction. Goes higher, no interest…revert to the mean and see if there’s interest. If there’s no interest there it goes lower till there is no interest and then back to the mean. From the mean any direction could be tested FWIW, including chopping around and coiling at that section of price. My signature sums up how I feel about market movements. 
Key pivot update
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 9, 2008
Today we were stopped out on the last Gold contract of our key pivot short to complete the trade. The final result of the trade was a gain of $1100. So far the first 3 gold key pivot trades have gained a total of $7,200. For a table of prior trades, current trades and results please see the ‘Trade rsults’ link at the top of the page that brings you yo this link http://tradersbase.com/test
Gold key pivot update
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 8, 2008
A quick update on the current gold key pivot play. So far we have had our first target hit @ 917 for a gain of $1100 on the first contract. The second contract is still open, I want to lower the stop loss on that last contract to 928 ( our entry price). This gives us a worst case scenario of a $1100 gain on the trade. I see us holding support levels here and I was not happy with the lack of selling in gold with oil dropping $5 today. We are trading @ 920 right now, I want to place our second target at 915 to see if we can get our exit tagged tonight or in the morning.
A failed signal is the best signal
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 7, 2008
A failed signal is the best signal
Some people say that a failed signal is the best signal. Im not sure if it the best but often times if you catch a true failure then you can nail a big move. One thing that I look for is what I think is a fake breakout used by shorts as a chance to dump into some buying, giving me the heads up a big move down is about to occur. Today I got a great example of this in the S&P mini futures. Below are 3 charts of the 5min ES from todays action, these will help give you a rough idea of what I saw hapen in the moments leading up to the sell off.
part 1 - what everyone sees setting up
part 2 - the fake breakout, then complete failure ( the bottom of that word bubble cut off the word failure)
part 3 - the result
Key pivot update
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 7, 2008
The gold key pivot trade already hit the first target of 917. I was wot now move the stop down to 938. Now the worst we can do is walk away with a $100 gain to cover costs. The second target is still open, we are on a ride for free.
Cire’s key pivot play (GOLD)
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 7, 2008
Key pivot play in goldSorry for the late night post but there is a gold key pivot play set up in gold RIGHT NOW. The trade will be taken in the August 2008 contract. The trigger was @ 928.00 we ticked below that so the set up is complete. Enter short @ 928 or better. Our initial stop loss is set @ 949 and the first target is 917, second target is open. GOOD LUCK!!!!
Now the good stocks are getting hit
Posted by Cire2222 on Jul 2, 2008
Now the good stocks are getting hit
Even as the market has been getting slammed there were some stocks that would rally strong like the market was just fine. The past few days these stocks have begun to falter. below are a handful of these stocks. Is it a buying op for these stocks or is nothing safe for longs?
