Posted by MC on Feb 12, 2010
http://tradersbase.com/tbimages/mc/2010/2-12-2010-spy-daily.jpg
My perspective. Obviously green drawings = bullish and red = bearish. There are many support levels below. The failed break on the head n’ shoulders showed quite bullish sentiment. Bear wise, there is some nice resistance overhead. Both the channel and bigger triangle/spring have broke down. The channel even tested and was rejected at $110ish so that’s a KEY level the bulls will have to fight.
Personally I’d like to see quite a bit of consolidation, which would build even more support up here for the bulls to spring off of. I don’t see how jobless recovery is possible, but I’ll trade what I see and not what I think. 
Fabrication of an economy…
Posted by MC on Feb 10, 2010
As long as they bailout and keep adding to the lenders ability to lend and fabricate an economy things will continue higher and become MORE VOLATILE than ever!
Gains are gains…whether they are from fundamental growth or inflation so I won’t trash long investors profits. But I would say it’s a game of hot potato and he with the highest level of greed will get his hand burned badly.
Depression? Is our economy going to need zoloft?
Posted by MC on Feb 7, 2010
A depression is almost always triggered by the deflation of excess credit. I guess my only question to the US government and banks is this…
HOW MUCH EXCESS CREDIT WILL YOU ENABLE AND FLOOD OUR SYSTEM WITH?
The bigger the bubble the more gum you get stuck to your face when it finally pops. Chew on that.
Americans are heavily burdened by credit that is NOT SELF LIQUIDATING. What does this mean? In basic terms it means that consumers live well beyond their means and take 6+ year car loans out and/or 50 year $0 down ARM mortgages. If you need a lengthy loan term YOU CANNOT AFFORD whatever you’re looking at!!! If you can’t afford 10-20% down on a house to start off with some positive equity in case of a downturn YOU CANNOT AFFORD it.
Self liquidating credit is quick to cycle and close. It’s the only type of credit that adds to the true value of an economy. By cycle I mean…production was facilitated by the creation of the loan…and therefore that loan generated the actual financial/economic return which makes repayment with interest possible. This illustrates TRUE economic growth, fundamentally.
The thought of the day from me…
Posted by MC on Jan 27, 2010
The thought of the day from me…
It must be nice to be a bank and have 0 carry costs. You can let things sit forever and not have to pay into an abyss. Do banks even pay property tax or is there a loophole for that as well? Remember, they own the house through a loan that they had nothing to back.
When people talk of bank losses and bad quarters…realize it’s all paper play money and book losses. They didn’t lose anything real or tangible. Now carry that thought into your own retirement expectations and finances. Do you really want to be tethered 100% to something that is a fathom? DIVERSIFY!
Will history repeat itself???
Posted by MC on Jan 7, 2010
Hrmmm. Can history repeat itself?
Merry Christmas…
Posted by MC on Dec 25, 2009
Merry Christmas from TradersBASE.
I have transferred to a shared host and intend to keep the site going, albeit at a much reduced capability and operating expense. 
The blog is running, the forum is requiring some extra effort due to the database size. The forum should be up and running within the next week barring anything chaotic. 
-MC
The end of an era…
Posted by MC on Dec 7, 2009
I am pulling the plug on TradersBASE at the end of this month. I’ve shelled out $50 per month for prime VPS hosting and the site has gone un-used. I just can’t justify that cost any longer.
It’s been fun and I enjoyed learning with you all. I regret having to lose all my documents/articles and charts but I can’t even justify $15 a month for shared hosting given the dismal participation over the last year.
Good luck in your trading and lives. If you were someone I built a rapport with you know how to reach me, if not you probably don’t care about this announcement. LOL
RIP TradersBASE!
Posted by MC on Nov 4, 2009
Enacting change is 90% motivation and 10% capability. People focus on what they “can’t do” or “don’t want” rather than focus on what they DO WANT. Focusing on what you do want will help you commit to your goal and will provide motivation and fuel you to achieve your goals!
An example plan for people that are driven by emotional pain…
(Step 1) “I don’t want to be fat”, should be changed to “I WANT to be fit”. Words are instantaneously interpreted and subconsciously charged with energy. Words can inspire us to create action, or paralyze us into inaction. The words “don’t want” shift our focus to negative feelings/energy and have a huge impact on our mindset. Using negative words and imagery sets up and most often predicts failure. Creating positive energy is extremely crucial to success.
(Step 2) For many people, pain is the dominant force in their mind. For these folks pain is so bitter they will do damn near anything to avoid the feeling of pain, even at the expense of pleasure. This group should use the energy their pain avoidance creates to motivate and propel them towards their desired outcome.
So it would go like this…
I have fully committed to the mantra “I WANT to be fit”.
I avoid pain at all costs.
I feel pain when I am NOT working towards being fit.
Therefore to avoid pain I MUST work towards the goal of being fit.
Use positive wording to set and commit to a goal. Then use pain as the motivation that drives you to the finish line.
An example plan for people that are driven by emotional pleasure…
(Step 1) This step is the same in both pain AND pleasure motivated individuals.
(Step 2) For most people, pleasure is the dominant force in their mind. For these folks pleasure is so enticing they will give up damn near everything to secure the high pleasure brings, even if it’s temporary and will lead to great pain. Gamblers and addicts fall into this group. This group actively seeks pleasure and should harness that power to motivate and propel them towards their desired outcome.
So it would go like this…
I have fully committed to the mantra “I WANT to be fit”.
Pleasure motivates me more than anything, even pain.
I feel pleasure when I am working towards being fit.
Therefore to gain pleasure I MUST work towards the goal of being fit.
Use positive wording to set and commit to a goal. Then use pleasure as the motivation that drives you to the finish line.
So you see, it’s first about setting up positivity and truly committing to a goal. From there it’s about finding what really drives you, (pain or pleasure) and linking that emotion to the goal. That link then provides motivation and sends you on your way to success. This is a method of re-programming your mind and using what supplies you the highest motivation as a catalyst not relying on will power alone which never works.
Deflation isn’t the only type of depression…get ready!
Posted by MC on Sep 29, 2009
As we know, we did in fact almost have a proper (and IMO much needed) bear deflation period. It was SOOOO close. But as the US goes…so does the entire world economy more less. If we have a full deflationary depression so will the other countries. If some manage to show strength their exports will be too expensive and they’ll end up battered eventually. This is the power the Bretton Woods brought to our table here in the US. With essentially everything “pegged” to our currency we have absolute power. A power we have abused horribly. Or should I say the rich bankers coerced us to abuse? We are merely puppets on a string.
In our recent recession the US wealth AND foreign wealth stepped in heavy. Compared to recent pricing (TA wise) we were at a bargain prices on many things. I must ask though, FA wise can you stand behind the US and it’s balance sheet? I’ve never done a real balance sheet and I’d be interested to see what some come up with since I have no formal training. Bottom line for me is this…buying because you HAVE to is far different that buying because you WANT to.
Setting TA and FA aside, here’s the reason IMO why foreigners are buying shit up here. In part like we said…everything is “pegged” to the US and they don’t wanna crash along with us. But also with the newly flooded money supply practically EVERYTHING (staple of life wise) will shoot up in value. We have far more dollars chasing the same goods. They don’t want to have USD on hand, they want to have goods that people will buy with the USD. If you save now you are a fool. USD will be losing ground in terms of spending power. INVESTING is far different than saving on something lame like a CD or bank instrument. I know this…but how many others do?
FAR MORE DOLLARS!!!
As an example of buying because you HAVE to…
I am out of the tech loop since I was let go last year. I didn’t know Intel built a US campus. I bet Intel bought here in the US for a few big reasons…and IMO quality of labor is NOT one. Appreciation of the property would be a major reason I would assume. Also, they have an interest or stake in the fire. WE are the people buying their computer chips and if we collapse so does their market. Again, it’s out of necessity not desire IMO.
Inflation can and will continue to create and transfer MASSIVE amounts of paper wealth. The concern I have is the wealth flows from those that do all the work (middle class) into the hands of those that do nothing (wealthy). And what the middle class will eventually be left with will be worthless paper assets (401k, mutual funds etc…) I understand the biz are the ones taking risk and they need to profit, but after taxes etc… we are slaves to the system. We as consumers are so debt strapped we NEED these jobs and we NEED the pay rates to continue rising just to cover interest and inflated costs of living. Everybody is strapped with leveraged liabilities in the US and our nest eggs are trapped in fictional paper assets…that is a concern of EPIC proportions to me.
Are service jobs really worth $30+ an hour? I guess technically we could be paid $1,000 an hour and something like a loaf of bread could be $100. If they can continue to raise wages in pace with inflation then the bubble could grow and grow and grow in theory. Sure is becoming a slippery slope if ya ask me.
Please watch this video
Posted by MC on Sep 21, 2009
http://www.chrismartenson.com/sites/all/themes/cm/cm-crashcourse.php?height=560&width=760
GI Joe said it best…knowing if half the battle.
This is a GREAT video series I highly urge you to watch.
